Google Ad lessons from Black Friday and Christmas

Every Black Friday, Cyber Monday (BFCM) and Christmas paid media leads the way for digital marketing strategies. It’s a time when budgets scale fast, competition intensifies and the margin for error shrinks. 

Managing Google Ads across multiple accounts at Refuel Creative this past holiday season reinforced a lesson I keep relearning:

The right bidding goal depends on the moment.

Sometimes efficiency wins (high Return on Ad Spend, tight Cost per Acquisition. Other times, the smartest move is to step on the gas and maximise revenue or conversions, even if efficiency dips.

Here are my main points from BFCM and Christmas. I will also talk about how to know when to focus on efficiency and when to focus on scale.

Two mindsets, one goal

Before diving into tactics, it helps to define the two modes clearly. Just like a car, you can’t stay in first gear forever, and you can’t redline it on a quiet suburban street.

1. Efficiency mode

This mode is all about discipline and protecting your margins. You aren't trying to capture every customer; you only want the customers that "make sense" for your bank account right now.

Typical strategies include:

• Target Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) for ecommerce
• Target Cost Per Acquisition (CPA) for lead generation / subscription
• Strict budget caps, particularly in competitive verticals

The primary goal is to protect profitability and ensure every dollar spent meets a minimum return.

2. Scale / growth mode

This is your aggressive gear. In this mode, you recognise that there is a gold rush happening (like BFCM). Your goal is to capture as much of the market as you can before the opportunity ends.

Typical strategies include:

• Maximise Conversions for lead generation / subscription
• Maximise Conversion Value (without ROAS constraints) for ecommerce
• Looser budget controls

The primary goal is to capture as much demand as possible while it exists.

Neither approach is necessarily better. The mistake is locking into one when the market conditions have changed. 

If you keep your Efficiency settings locked during the biggest shopping event of the year, you aren't being careful. What you're being is invisible. 

Conversely, if you leave your Scale settings running when the frenzy dies down, you aren’t being ambitious, you’re being wasteful.

What BFCM taught us

Demand is high but so is competition

During BFCM, user intent is at its peak. People aren’t browsing; they’re buying. It seems that while most of the time people are at the top of the funnel or the middle, during BFCB, they get pushed to the bottom. 

People aren’t browsing because the active deals during this time have an expiry date. They also generally already done their research and browsing and now what deals they are going to bounce on when Black Friday starts. 

This time also creates a lot of FOMO. The fear of losing out on a $50 discount is a powerful motivator.

This period also means:

• Cost Per Click (CPC) spikes. During BFCM, every brand on earth turns on their ads. This drives the entry fee (CPC) up.
• Impression share is aggressively contested
• Algorithms need freedom to compete. When you set a Target ROAS or CPA that is too hard to hit during a high-competition period, Google flags your campaign as Limited by Strategy. This is essentially the algorithm giving up. It throttles your traffic because it doesn't want to fail your targets. Allowing it freedom keeps your Impression Share high. This way, you won't lose customers to the competitor next door who bids more aggressively.

During BFCM, users are hunting for the greatest deal. If you are the odd one out without a sale or a compelling special offer, your results will likely tank. Unfortunately it is a harsh reality of the BFCM landscape.

Even if your product is superior, a potential customer seeing a 30% Off badge on a competitor’s ad is going to click theirs first. Your Click-through Rate (CTR) will drop and your CPCs will climb as Google tries to find anyone willing to click an offer-less ad.

It’s so important to advertise your offers early too. Even if your product is better, a potential customer will click on a competitor’s ad with a 30% Off badge first.

When to favour scale during BFCM

In many cases, we saw better results by relaxing efficiency limits before and during BFCM. 

Interestingly, during the high intensity environment of BFCM, spending more can actually be the key to staying efficient. In accounts where we proactively scaled budgets, we saw an interesting trend. Our client maintained their efficiency (ROAS/CPA) even as revenue skyrocketed. 

By giving the algorithm more budget to play with, we allowed it to enter more auctions. Because the intent to buy was so high across the board, the AI didn't have to struggle to find conversions. It had the bandwidth to follow the demand, resulting in a rare win-win. It was revenue growth without the usual drop in efficiency.

Why:

• A strict target ROAS (tROAS) or target CPA (tCPA) often limits volume right when demand is strongest
• Missing auctions during BFCM is usually a bigger loss than slightly lower efficiency

What worked well:

• Switching from tROAS to Maximise Conversion Value (no target)
• Increasing budgets ahead of the sales window, not during it
• Accepting short-term ROAS drops in exchange for higher total revenue

Rule of thumb:

If demand is surging and stock can support it, prioritise max revenue over perfect efficiency.

The Christmas shift: A return to efficiency

Christmas told a different story. While BFCM is a sprint, Christmas is a marathon. 

The psychology of a shopper on November 28th (BFCM) is "Buy it now before the price goes up!" The psychology of a shopper on December 12th is "Is this the right gift for mum? Will it arrive in time? Let me check three other sites."

Demand is broader but less urgent

Outside of last-minute shopping, Christmas demand is more fragmented:

• Longer consideration cycles
• Higher variance in intent
• Greater risk of waste if bidding is too loose

During December, people are often buying for others, not themselves. This makes them more cautious. They read reviews, compare features and check shipping policies. 

Christmas has a unique hard stop that BFCM doesn't because of the dreaded shipping deadlines! As soon as your Guaranteed Delivery by Dec 24 date passes, your conversion rate for non-local customers will fall off a cliff. If your algorithm is still in Freedom/Scale mode, it will keep spending money on people who will see your Delivery by Jan 5 notice and bounce immediately.

When to favour efficiency during Christmas

As we moved deeper into December (especially post-shipping cut-offs), efficiency-focused strategies performed more consistently.

Why:

• Incremental demand declines
• Algorithms can overspend chasing lower-quality traffic
• Margins matter more after heavy BFCM discounting

What worked well:

• Reintroducing tROAS or tighter tCPA targets
• Pulling back budgets on weaker categories / broader keywords
• Letting historical data stabilise bidding again

Adding CPC caps where it makes sense

During Christmas, adding a CPC cap can be a smart safeguard, particularly for products with a small or one-off return. Spending $100+ per click to chase a $30 single purchase rarely makes commercial sense.

However, this isn’t a blanket rule:

• If your customers tend to place large orders
• If you work in B2B or high-value lead generation, higher CPCs often mean better-qualified prospects.
• If that $30 purchase starts a subscription and the customer stays for 12 months, the initial loss becomes profitable. This is true when we consider the Customer Lifetime Value (LTV).

…then higher CPCs may still be profitable.

The key is context, not fear of high numbers.

Practical tip to try

Regularly analyse your search terms and keyword reports. This is where you can see if higher CPCs attract low-intent traffic or real, high-quality buyers.

The rule of thumb is that when urgency fades, efficiency protects results. Google’s AI is hungry. If you tell it to Maximize Conversions without any limits, it will find conversions, but it might pay $50 to get a $40 sale. 

Sometimes, the best choice is to move quickly and boost revenue or sales, even if efficiency drops. When the urgency fades, there are fewer easy buyers. Efficiency settings act like a speed limiter, preventing the AI from overspending on expensive, low-quality traffic.

A framework to choose the right focus

Here’s a simple way to decide which mode to use.

Favour efficiency when:

• Demand is stable or declining
• Margins are tight
• You’re outside of major sales events
• Inventory or fulfilment capacity is limited

Recommended strategies:

• Target ROAS to maximise revenue focusing on conversion quality over quantity
• Target CPA to maximise conversion while hitting the cost goal
• Conservative budget scaling

Favour revenue / conversions when:

• Demand is peaking (BFCM, major promos, product launches)
• You can fulfil increased volume
• Lifetime value justifies short-term inefficiency
• Losing impression share is more costly than higher CPA

Recommended strategies:

• Maximise Conversions
• Maximise Conversion Value (with or without target)
• Aggressive but controlled budget increases

Don't forget about data delay

One thing that trips up even seasoned advertisers is the reporting delay.

During high-competition seasons, we’ve seen conversion and revenue data delayed by up to 40 days. This can significantly distort short-term performance reads.

What we found helps is:

• Comparing performance against last year’s data for the same period
• Looking at directional trends rather than daily swings

If this year initially looks better than last year, great.
If it looks worse, don’t be discouraged too quickly. Performance often improves once delayed conversions fully come through.

Peak-season optimisation requires patience as much as precision.

Google Ads success is within your reach

BFCM and Christmas reinforced that Google Ads success isn’t about picking one bidding strategy and sticking to it. It’s about reading the market and giving the algorithm the right objective at the right time.

Efficiency keeps your accounts healthy.
Scale drives your business forward.

The best results come from knowing when to switch gears.

If you’re planning for the next peak season, start working out now whether efficiency matters most and when will revenue matter more? Want to see how we can find the perfect balance for your accounts? Get in touch and let’s talk strategy.